Vantage: February 2026

Originally published on Substack on 2026-02-04.

Vantage: February 2026

By Uriel Zehavi · Israel Brief

Publication Date: February 4, 2026

Overview

Israel faces multiple simultaneous security challenges with minimal strategic flexibility. A fragile Gaza ceasefire deteriorates as Hamas refuses disarmament, escalation looms on the northern frontier with Hezbollah, and high-stakes diplomacy with Iran remains volatile. Israeli leadership views the current pause as temporary—a brief window before confrontation resumes across multiple fronts.

War, Security & Force Posture

Gaza: Ceasefire on Borrowed Time

The first phase of Gaza operations concluded with recovery of the final Israeli hostage remains. This removed the primary constraint on Israeli military action. President Trump immediately demanded Hamas disarmament, but the militant group shows no intention of voluntarily surrendering weapons or authority.

Israeli assessment concludes "Hamas will peacefully disarm" is unlikely. The organization continues rebuilding defensive positions and tunnel networks under ceasefire cover, preparing for continued conflict. Recent clashes validate this skepticism—when Gazan gunners fired on Israeli forces, tank and air units struck back, killing at least nine militants.

Israeli Strategic Position on Gaza:

• Netanyahu explicitly rejected Turkish or Qatari participation in stabilization forces

• Ruled out Palestinian Authority governance in Gaza

• Stated Israel will maintain security control from "the Jordan River to the sea"

• Will accept international administrative frameworks only if they don't empower adversaries

The International Stabilization Force mechanism remains theoretical. Israeli officials privately assess Hamas is merely regrouping, not transitioning to peace. Without miraculous Hamas capitulation, the IDF will likely resume major operations within weeks—either limited strikes on resurgent capabilities or comprehensive "Phase B" disarmament operations.

Current strategy involves maintaining security perimeters, conducting raids on suspected arms caches, and indefinitely delaying Gaza reconstruction. This approach expects significant international backlash but Israeli leaders are prepared to absorb it.

The Northern Front: Preempting Hezbollah

A U.S.-brokered ceasefire one year ago required Hezbollah withdraw north of the Litani River and disarm southern units by end-2025. Neither condition materialized. Israeli intelligence documented Hezbollah fighters returning immediately, reconstructing rocket launch sites, and expanding arms depots with Lebanese Army cooperation.

Israel adopted a preemption strategy in late January. Calibrated strike campaigns escalated into widescale airstrikes across southern Lebanon using bunker-buster munitions—signaling no target remains safe. One precision strike eliminated Muhammad al-Husseini, Hezbollah's chief artillery commander in the Tyre sector orchestrating rearmament.

Hezbollah's Response:

The organization maintains measured but hostile posture, firing sporadic anti-tank missiles and rockets while avoiding full barrage capability. Rhetoric warns that Iranian attacks would trigger Hezbollah's full mobilization against Israel.

Regional Dynamics:

Lebanese state elements express alarm at renewed conflict prospects, though doubts exist about their capacity to actually constrain Hezbollah. Israel signals through U.S. intermediaries that Lebanese governmental responsibility extends to Hezbollah's disarmament—failure invites Israeli response.

Escalation Timeline:

All indicators suggest near-term escalation. Israel's operational patience is nearly exhausted. The IDF has cleared vegetation and obstacles from border fence areas, removed cover for potential infiltrators, and effectively readied the battlefield for major operations. Units received Litani River crossing rehearsal notices.

A potential wildcard scenario involves synchronized Israeli strikes on Hezbollah coinciding with U.S. action against Iranian nuclear facilities, potentially permitting Israel to pursue Hezbollah's elimination rather than mere containment.

Iran and its Proxies: Edge of a Precipice

The Iran-Israel-U.S. triangle faces its most delicate moment in years. Simultaneously, Trump's team pursues final diplomatic efforts while preparing military contingencies.

Diplomatic Track:

A high-level meeting scheduled for Friday involves U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner negotiating with Iranian representatives. The proposed package would trade limited Iranian nuclear concessions for sanctions relief and hostility freezes. U.S. officials acknowledge preparation for negotiation failure.

Military Preparations:

Trump has not ruled out military strikes while talks proceed. Regional posture has massively escalated: USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group entered theater, Patriot and THAAD batteries deployed across the Gulf, allied bases fortified or partially evacuated.

Saudi Arabia and Gulf states shifted their position. Riyadh privately warned Iran it "would not stay silent" if U.S. bases face retaliation, suggesting Gulf states now anticipate American strikes.

Iranian Assessment:

Israeli intelligence reports Iran's leadership is deeply shaken. Anti-regime protests erupted across 30+ provinces in January with thousands of casualties. Khamenei's inner circle fears U.S. military action could threaten regime survival.

Tehran's strategy involves proxy escalation without clear red line crossing. Yemen's Houthis threaten Red Sea attacks while relocating missile and drone stockpiles. Iraqi and Syrian militias issue bellicose statements but refrain from direct Israeli attacks.

Iran signaled that U.S. strikes would activate Hezbollah against Israel, opening a second front.

Trump's Calculus:

Trump dislikes protracted wars with midterm elections looming but won't tolerate nuclear-armed Iran. A short campaign of strikes ("shock and awe" style) targeting nuclear and military facilities remains on the table. Israel quietly urges firmness.

If Iran strikes first or makes provocative nuclear advances, probability of U.S. military action spikes significantly. Israeli war preparations include nationwide air defense drills, reserve call-ups, and pre-positioned forces.

A lower-probability scenario involves Iran making sufficient concessions to avoid strikes, though current postures suggest confrontation edges ahead.

Judea & Samaria: Low-Intensity Flashpoints

Palestinian Authority control continues collapsing across the territory. Israeli forces intensified nightly raids in Nablus, Jenin, and Jericho as militant activity surged under PA security weakness. Militias inspired by Hamas and Islamic Jihad operate with increasing impunity in northern Samaria.

Israeli Strategic Position:

Israel adopted containment and crisis management posture. A complete PA collapse would force Israeli administration of Palestinian areas—nightmare scenario given military bandwidth constraints. Israel thus quietly bolsters PA where feasible (transferring tax revenues, permitting foreign aid to security forces) while directly eliminating imminent threats.

The IDF maintains its highest Judea and Samaria presence in years with permanent reinforcements since Gaza operations began.

Risk Assessment:

Without significant change, the territory will simmer at low intensity with periodic violence spikes. Major trigger would be Hamas calling general uprising if Gaza reignites. Israeli intelligence focuses on West Bank Hamas operatives potentially orchestrating mass casualties or coordinated uprisings.

Overall this remains a pressure cooker—not currently boiling over but precarious, dependent on Israel's capacity to be simultaneously present across Gaza, Lebanon, and Palestinian territories.

Red Sea Arena & Other Proxies

Houthi-controlled Yemen has become a de facto conflict zone. January threats to launch Red Sea attacks timed conspicuously with U.S. carrier movement proved credible. Houthis possess advanced anti-ship missiles and long-range drones capable of reaching Eilat or targeting shipping lanes.

Naval Coordination:

U.S. Navy and Israeli Navy increased Red Sea patrols and readiness. The USS Delbert D. Black docked in Eilat for joint exercises. Subsequently both conducted live-fire drills signaling to Houthis and Iran that these routes remain under close watch.

Houthi Preparations:

Intelligence indicates active contingency planning—missile and drone stockpiles relocated to hardened sites, high-level war meetings held. Houthis likely calculate that U.S. strikes on Iran would activate all proxies, gaining prestige through Israeli attacks.

Syrian Developments:

Regime change in Damascus raised questions about Iranian distance. Mixed signals emerged. New Syrian leadership engaged U.S. and Israeli talks via intermediaries, suggesting interest in stabilization and Iranian proxy elimination. Trump praised "hard work" and eased sanctions.

Netanyahu demanded demilitarized buffer from Damascus to the Golan, free of Iranian militias and weapons—delivered as ultimatum despite U.S. caution. Israeli strikes continued at low tempo targeting suspected IRGC convoys and militia bases.

Turkey's Role:

Turkey deployed new radar at Damascus airport potentially limiting Israeli Air Force operations by tracking jets at range—part of Turkey's regional maneuvering. Israel responded by banning entry to several Turkish officials including President Erdogan's son over anti-Israel activities. The Turkey-Israel rift, while not militarily active, constitutes a diplomatic front to monitor.

Regional Force Posture:

Israel reinforced Red Sea naval presence, maintained air alert for Syria and Iraq contingencies, and preserved high home readiness. The IDF describes this as "a period of improving readiness for war" across multiple arenas. Israeli maritime defenses hardened significantly with no successful hits on naval or commercial assets despite Iranian attempts. Vigilance against asymmetric threats like mines or explosive boats continues.

Peripheral fronts (Yemen, Syria, Iraq) will ignite only if core Iran conflict does. Israel assumes any major war won't remain limited—proxies everywhere will activate, requiring engagement from Red Sea to Golan to Gulf.

International Arena

United States: Lockstep with Israel, Eyes on Iran

U.S.-Israel strategic alignment reached its strongest in decades. Trump administration essentially embraced Israel's threat assessment. Washington provides robust diplomatic cover and military aid—precision munitions and air defense interceptors arrive weekly. The White House vetoed hostile UN Security Council resolutions targeting Gaza operations and backed Israel's right to eliminate Hamas and defend the northern border.

Trump's Political Calculation:

With 2026 midterms approaching, Trump wants to project strength and results. Supporting Israel's tough stance appears politically advantageous if it succeeds quickly. An undercurrent suggests that if Hamas remains armed or Hezbollah fires rockets by spring, even this friendly administration could grow frustrated.

Trump tied Gaza stabilization success to broader anti-Iran strategy, telling Netanyahu that demonstrating "every hostage returned" and Hamas disarmed maintains American public support for Iran confrontation.

Iran Diplomacy:

Netanyahu met with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff for three hours this week discussing Iran strategy. Israel presented firm demands: removal of all enriched uranium, enrichment halt, tight ballistic missile limits, and proxy support cessation. These demands Iran won't fully accept, suggesting Israel would prefer no deal over a weak one.

Little daylight exists between capitals. Israel's firm stance stiffens U.S. resolve. A senior U.S. official noted the Friday summit aims at "preventing war," but "the Trump administration hopes Iran will come ready to make needed compromises"—implying military option remains ready if not.

Trump requested a plan avoiding "long-term war," with sources indicating this could mean overwhelming air and cyber strikes over 48-72 hours crippling Iranian nuclear sites and command structure.

Coordination Mechanics:

IDF Chief Zamir's secret Washington trip likely provided latest Iranian intelligence and possibly coordinated strike engagement rules. Unconfirmed reports suggest Israeli fighter jets might participate in U.S.-led operations or handle proxy targets while U.S. forces target Iran proper.

Europe: From Sympathy to Scrutiny

EU capitals and UK demonstrate narratives centered on Palestinian suffering and Israeli "war crimes." Israel's moral high ground argument falls on deaf ears. European media saturates with Gaza devastation imagery, translating into political pressure: the EU Parliament passed non-binding resolutions condemning Israel's "disproportionate force," several governments paused arms exports, and calls escalate for sanctions if large-scale Gaza operations resume without political solutions.

France and Germany—traditionally understanding Israel's security needs—are openly split. France's President suggested international Gaza trusteeship questioning Israeli judgment; Germany's Chancellor supports Israel but faces restless coalition dissent.

UN Proceedings:

The UN General Assembly approved resolutions requesting International Court of Justice urgent review of potential genocide findings. The UN Human Rights Council's Commission of Inquiry released damning reports accusing Israel of war crimes and "genocidal intent" language infuriating Israeli officials. That COI report explicitly recommended ICC arrest warrant issuance for top Israeli officials.

The International Criminal Court prosecutor pursued charges. ICC judges affirmed jurisdiction over Palestinian territories investigations. Notably, the ICC issued arrest warrants for PM Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant on war crimes suspicions in Gaza. While initially under seal, these became public after Israel challenged them unsuccessfully in court.

Israel rejects ICC authority (non-member status) and has no intention of surrendering officials. Globally, Israel's leaders face wanted war criminal designation. This represents "lawfare at its peak"—Palestinians and NGO allies leveraging international bodies to criminalize Israeli self-defense.

NGO Activism:

European NGOs and activist groups operate in high gear. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and local organizations filed ICC briefs, compiled strike dossiers, and lobbied European governments for punishment. These organizations demonstrate blatant bias—Jerusalem long accused some of serving as pro-Palestinian activism fronts. Israeli officials privately acknowledge lawfare as impediment, forcing defensive effort and potentially chilling operational decisions, yet remain determined not to let "preaching from Geneva or New York" override security imperatives.

Selective European Alignment:

Some European countries quietly support Israel's broader Iran fight. UK and France reportedly provided Hezbollah intelligence and beefed up Mediterranean naval forces deterring Iranian moves. However, their publics oppose Gaza actions, so politically they maintain distance. Eastern European states (Poland, Hungary) remain pro-Israel in EU forums, partly through Trump alignment and partly due to own security perspectives. This prevented unified EU sanctions.

Pressure instead channeled through UN and ICC where individual European states support inquiries without unilateral action. Israel feels isolated in public opinion but not in power corridors. The Global South and Muslim countries uniformly blast Israel—many declared Gaza genocide, some (South Africa, Malaysia) cut diplomatic ties.

Israeli Strategic Response:

Israel calculates that strategic relationships (U.S., certain Arab partners, India) matter more. UN votes and NGO reports constitute manageable "noise." Israeli diplomatic strategy involves two elements: behind-scenes engagement tempering resolution language (shifting focus from explicit war crimes accusations to humanitarian issues) and winning on ground so convincingly facts become moot.

A mid-February UN Security Council session will push resolutions demanding Israel refrain from Lebanon escalation and protect Lebanese civilians—likely U.S. vetoed. Discussion continues regarding special UN tribunal investigating Hamas October 7 crimes and Israeli response in tandem—Israel opposes this as equating terrorists with sovereign states.

Israel navigates increasingly hostile international arena with largely lost narrative, relying on U.S. and select allies blocking concrete penalties while portraying UN and ICC as politicized.

Arab States: Quiet Partners, Public Critics

The Arab state landscape exemplifies doublespeak. In public forums (UN, Arab League), virtually all Arab and Muslim-majority states rail against Israeli actions. Gulf states, recently courting Israel, stepped back: the Saudi-Israel normalization talks prominent in 2024 effectively froze pending Gaza resolution. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman must balance tacit U.S./Israel alignment against extreme pro-Palestinian public opinion, thus officially condemning Israeli "excesses" while quietly coordinating.

Gulf State Patterns:

Similar patterns across Gulf: UAE vocally aided Gaza and criticized bombing yet maintained defense cooperation (Israeli defense tech personnel reportedly still quietly active). Qatar remains odd player—funding and hosting Hamas leaders under intense scrutiny while positioning as mediator. Israel correctly distrusts Qatari involvement as Hamas-aligned (given their status as largest patron). Pragmatic contacts continue; Mossad officials reportedly communicate via Qatari intermediaries to Hamas regarding disarmament talks. Qatar likely continues fence-straddling to maintain negotiation relevance and Al Jazeera narrative positioning.

Egyptian Role:

Cairo remains critical piece. Egypt facilitated humanitarian corridors and worked with Israel and U.S. on international force concepts. President Sisi privately dislikes Gaza dumping on Egypt (governance rejection) but also opposes Hamas strength. Egypt beefed up Sinai security preventing jihadist spillover. Tellingly, Egypt and Israel remain tightly coordinated on security; Egypt recently permitted Israeli drone overflights of Sinai portions monitoring for ISIS or Hamas movements. Publicly, Sisi criticizes Israel placating the street, but behind-scenes he urges Hamas compliance with Trump's deal avoiding ISIS-like Gaza conditions.

Jordanian Anxiety:

Jordan deeply fears new intifada or Gaza chaos destabilizing Judea and Samaria with spillover to Jordan. Amman's rhetoric toward Israel proved harsh (temporarily recalled ambassador protesting Gaza bombing), but security ties quietly persist. Israel-Jordan-U.S. coordination maintains Judea and Samaria calm and preserves Temple Mount status quo. Israel recently thanked Jordan (quietly) for passing messages encouraging PA violence restraint. Primary concern: PA collapse might flood Jordan with refugees or militants—Hashemite nightmare. Therefore Jordan supports PA bolstering and warily observes Israeli West Bank movements.

Broader Arab/Muslim Alignments:

Iran allies Syria (new regime) and Iraq walk carefully. Iraq's government officially condemned Israel loudly while avoiding renewed battleground status; attempting to rein Shi'ite militias with mixed success. Syria's new leadership explores Iranian distancing sufficient for sanctions relief and reconstruction—implicitly meaning Hezbollah avoidance. Clarity extent unclear as Turkey and Russia guarantee new arrangement with own conflict avoidance incentives (Russia dislikes extensive Israeli Syria strikes; Turkey fears additional refugee millions).

Trump's "Board of Peace":

Notably, some Arab countries engaged Trump's "Board of Peace." Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia announced "Peace Council" participation supporting Gaza rebuilding and regional stability. This represented Trump diplomatic win—broad Muslim participation nominally. However, countries primarily joined restraining Trump and Israel. Leaks suggested Saudi, Turkey, and Qatar united urging Trump to hold off Iran strikes, fearing regional inferno. They briefly succeeded—rumored late-January U.S. strike postponed following Gulf pressure.

However, as Iran dragged diplomatic feet, united front frayed. Recently, Saudi defense minister privately told U.S. counterparts that Trump hesitation would embolden Iran—stark reversal. Riyadh now bets short war might actually eliminate the Iranian sword dangling over the region. Remarkable turn: the same Saudi warning against strikes now may be implicitly greenlit one, or at least preparing to weather consequences.

Inside Israel: Coalition Strains and Home Front Resilience

Political Cohesion vs. "Haredi Draft" Crisis

During peak war emergency, Israel's famously fractious politics relatively muted—unity mindset prevailed during mobilization. But as immediate crisis ebbed, governing coalition fault lines re-emerged. The most acute dispute: the "Haredi draft crisis." Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) coalition parties insist on legislating renewed military service exemptions. Israel's Supreme Court struck down previous blanket exemption law. Haredi parties demand law enshrining continuing mass exemptions (formalizing military service avoidance), while much Israeli public and IDF leadership demand greater Haredi burden-sharing.

As war pressure lifted, coalition unity "slipped" on this issue. Tensions peaked recently when Knesset legal adviser warned that failure to pass state budget by March deadline would automatically collapse government triggering elections. This effectively tied budget votes to draft law resolution. Netanyahu scrambled maintaining coalition cohesion: imploring allies that "the last thing Israel needs in the current situation is elections."

Behind-scenes Netanyahu mediated between two ultra-Orthodox factions (Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael, together forming United Torah Judaism) and secular nationalist partners. One Haredi faction threatened breakoff if draft law insufficiently lenient—move weakening coalition stability. Netanyahu secured first budget reading passage 62–55 with Haredi support by promising draft law progress. The ₪660 billion ($180B) budget reflects wartime expenditures and reconstruction needs, modestly increasing welfare subsidies (some for Haredi communities) while maintaining elevated defense spending.

Conscription Strategy:

Netanyahu's team advances Conscription Arrangements Law addressing Haredi draft. The reported plan: lowers enlistment age for Haredim (so older students gain exemptions more easily), sets very low annual ultra-Orthodox enlistment quotas, and essentially codifies broad exemptions while encouraging voluntary service. Even coalition military-minded members feel uneasy as it could hurt IDF manpower long-term.

IDF itself, particularly Chief of Staff Zamir, vocalized that expanding Haredi enlistment represents "an operational necessity" for military future. During Nevatim Airbase speech to Haredi soldiers, Zamir praised service and said integrating ultra-Orthodox while respecting lifestyle remains critical for ensuring future readiness. The IDF just this week took historic step formalizing special service tracks for Haredim—dubbed "Magen" (Shield) and others—allowing gender-segregated units and religious accommodations improving enlistment palatability. The military appointed special Haredi affairs advisor to Chief of Staff overseeing these programs. In essence, military prepares to absorb additional ultra-Orthodox if law eventually forces it, or even volunteers.

Social Tensions:

The Haredi draft issue already triggered unrest. Extremist ultra-Orthodox rioters in Jerusalem and elsewhere blocked roads and clashed with police demanding full exemption. One incident seriously injured a protester accidentally run over by car navigating Haredi roadblock. Hundreds subsequently gathered with fears of wider violence spiraling.

Netanyahu's challenge: avoid coalition breakup while avoiding public rupture (might provoke mass protests if overly sweeping exemption law passes). He likely will push compromise law through coming weeks—one that practically defers most Haredi service for years (raising exemption age, etc.)—hoping outrage gets managed until security allows greater focus.

Opposition already signals post-security-threat mobilization against "draft-dodging deal." Expect large Tel Aviv and elsewhere protests over draft law.

Trigger Table: Key Scenarios

Israel faces plausible trigger events in coming weeks. The following outlines scenarios, triggers, likely responses, probability assessment, and approximate time window:

Hamas Reneges & Gaza Escalation (Likely in next 1–4 weeks)

• If Hamas continues resisting all disarmament or commits major ceasefire breach (deadly IDF troop attack, renewed Israeli city rocket fire), Israel resumes full-scale military operations in Gaza. Heavy airstrikes on remaining Hamas strongholds and possibly ground operations into Gaza City/Khan Younis forcibly stripping Hamas weapons.

• Probability: High. Hamas behavior suggests non-compliance; small clashes already occurring.

Northern War Expands (Moderate-High in next 2–6 weeks)

• Triggered either by major Hezbollah provocation (large rocket barrage causing Israeli civilian deaths or successful anti-tank ambush) or Israel's preemption schedule crescendoing. Israel would launch broad Lebanon offensive. Expect massive southern Lebanon airstrikes (possibly Beirut Dahiya for high-level targets) and ground invasion up to Litani River clearing Hezbollah positions.

• Probability: Moderate-High. Current events path points this direction if Hezbollah retaliates for ongoing strikes. Israel clearly inclined toward "finishing the job" sooner rather than later.

Iran Direct Strike or U.S. Strike on Iran (Moderate in 4–8 weeks)

• Scenario 1: Iran, cornered, attempts preemptive strike on Israel or U.S. assets—perhaps ballistic missile volley at Israeli cities or U.S. bases (via proxies or directly). This triggers immediate retaliation: Israel (likely with U.S.) unleashes force against Iranian nuclear and military facilities.

• Scenario 2: Diplomatic talks collapse and President Trump orders "quick, decisive" strike preemptively.

• Either scenario expects multi-front proxy attacks—Hezbollah raining rockets, Iraqi militias firing at U.S. bases, Houthis targeting Red Sea shipping. Israel enters full emergency mode executing two-front (north and Iran) conflict war plans. Might include Israeli strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets in Syria/Iraq to stem tide.

• Probability: Moderate. U.S.-Iran negotiations at knife's edge; approximately 50% U.S. strike probability by late February if Iran doesn't budge. Iran launching first represents lower probability (usually avoids direct U.S./Israel aggression appearance), but not impossible if war inevitability assumed.

Judea & Samaria Meltdown (Moderate-low in next 8–12 weeks)

• If PA loses remaining grip (President Abbas is weak; rumors of health failure swirl), militant factions could launch coordinated uprising. Hamas might ignite Judea and Samaria if Gaza faces full assault, calling mass attacks.

• Probability: Moderate to low. PA erosion is real, but Israel is mitigating daily. This resembles creeping crisis more than sudden trigger unless extraordinary spark occurs.

Coalition Breakdown & Early Elections (Low-Moderate, by late March)

• If budget and conscription laws aren't passed by March end, Knesset automatically dissolves. Trigger: hardline Haredi parties refusing budging or key partner bolting.

• Probability: Currently low. Most coalition members recognize elections now would be extremely unpopular. However, if security stabilizes by March, some might risk elections avoiding draft law concessions. We believe Netanyahu will find compromise avoiding this scenario.

Major Diaspora Terror Attack (Moderate-High, ongoing window)

• Non-Israel trigger requiring notation: Mass-casualty antisemitic terror attack abroad (like Sydney massacre) could influence Israeli strategy. If Hezbollah or Iranian agents perpetrated deadly attack on Israeli embassy or Jewish center in U.S./Europe, Israel might retaliate directly against Iranian interests absent direct conflict trigger. Alternatively, such event could strengthen international anti-Iran/Hezbollah resolve.

• Probability: Moderate. Threat remains high per intelligence, though security is also elevated. We're in globally elevated risk window.

Israeli decision-makers actively game these scenarios. The period from now through late March constitutes the critical window when conflicts will escalate and possibly climax—or if stalemate persists through April, international pressure and internal fatigue will mount forcing some freeze. Israel operates with "now or never" sense regarding Gaza and Hezbollah threat resolution.

What's Next?

What Hardened (Solidified Trends and Resolve):

Jerusalem's Resolve to Finish Off Hamas & Hezbollah – Hardened: Far from war-weariness softening Israel's stance, determination to neutralize Hamas and Hezbollah once and for all has only hardened. The gruesome past two years—October 7, rocket barrages, hostage crisis—steeled Israeli society and leadership accepting no half-measures. Neither international hand-wringing nor two-year fatigue altered conviction that security requires decisive force. Outsiders expecting Israeli restraint will be proven wrong; Israel is prepared acting unilaterally and boldly removing existential threats.

U.S.–Israel Strategic Sync – Hardened: Strategic alignment between Washington and Jerusalem peaked. Trump administration backing Israel unequivocally and actively operationally—from diplomatic cover to expedited weapons delivery and joint contingency planning. U.S. warnings to Iran proxies on Israel's behalf, shared intelligence, and Iran coordination illustrate unprecedented sync. Effectively, U.S. and Israel move as unified phalanx against Tehran's axis. This unity encouraged Israel pressing forward (knowing U.S. "has its back") and stiffened America's resolve (U.S. officials openly echo Israel red-lines now).

Diaspora Jewish Vigilance – Hardened: The global antisemitic attack shock awakened Jewish worldwide communities to heightened vigilance and solidarity. Prior "safe" diaspora haven complacency hardened to alert vigilance. After Sydney massacre and similar incidents, Jewish communities are more mobilized, security-conscious, and outspoken than ever. Volunteer security patrols, inter-denominational cooperation, and assertive advocacy replaced prior quiet.

Global Jihadist Zeal Against Israel/Jews – Hardened: Conversely, Islamist extremist commitment to target Israel and Jews solidified. Hezbollah ideology and Iranian resolve confronting Israel weren't cowed by Israeli strikes. If anything, they're doubling down on "resistance" existentialism rhetoric. Hamas refusal entertaining any political diminishment or true ceasefire became increasingly obvious—ideology of jihad against Israel remains intact despite military blows. This hardened hatred means Israel cannot bank on deterrence alone. These actors won't voluntarily quit, reinforcing Israeli view they require decisive neutralization.

What Slipped (Deteriorated or Lost Ground):

International Sympathy for Israel – Slipped Away: Any meager goodwill and sympathy Israel briefly enjoyed evaporated in Europe and UN. Global focus shifted almost entirely to Palestinian suffering and legal accusations against Israel. Israel's moral high ground narrative falls on deaf ears in many forums; diplomatic maneuvering room narrowed. European publics and media largely hostile or unsympathetic, complicating Israeli diplomacy and PR. Israel proceeds anyway, but sympathetic voice absence could translate into downstream challenges (slower weapons resupply from some European suppliers, increased legal harassment).

Palestinian Authority Control & Relevance – Slipped Further: Palestinian Authority's tenuous Judea and Samaria control eroded further to near-irrelevance. Militants in northern Samaria openly defy PA, and Israel directly filled security vacuum. Whatever PA legitimacy shreds existed among Palestinians largely slipped away—most Palestinians view it as impotent or collaborationist. This raises chaos risk when Abbas exits (late 80s, failing health)—Hamas foothold and/or anarchy will ensue. Israel effectively propping PA up avoiding total anarchy, but this represents unsustainable long-term strategy.

What's Next (Emerging Pressures & Scenarios):

Controlled Israeli Offensive in Lebanon – Imminent: All indicators point to Israel executing major Hezbollah offensive very near-term. Airstrikes already expanded, and south Lebanon evacuation orders began as precursors. Israel will escalate to broad air and ground operations unless miracle-like Hezbollah blink occurs (highly unlikely). Timing likely sooner rather than later—Israel prefers striking before further rearmament or Iran deal alters equation. Expect Litani Line enforcement. Israel may issue civilian zone evacuation ultimatum, then hit infrastructure hard, possibly followed by limited incursions pushing fighters north of Litani.

Phase 2 Gaza Gambit – Faltering and Unilateral Plan B: The much-touted Gaza Phase 2 transition (international force deployment, technocratic governance) verges on collapse. Israel prepared for that outcome: expect unilateral Israeli security enforcement—establishing no-go buffer zones, conducting targeted raids at will, controlling borders—and Gaza reconstruction indefinite delay until disarmament conditions met. Effectively, Israel's world message: "No disarmament, no rebuilding." That scenario seems likely as Hamas digs in. So next phase likely involves long-term Israeli security presence around and inside Gaza and prolonged standoff where Gazans receive humanitarian aid but no full rehabilitation. This isn't diplomat-hoped outcome but heading there given Hamas stance.

Iran's Dilemma Point – Decision in Coming Weeks: Iran faces fateful choice: whether actively "opening its front" against Israel/U.S. or laying low. Indicators to watch: any proxy attack resumption on U.S. bases or Israeli territory (militia rockets, Houthi strikes), or provocative nuclear steps (enrichment jumps). If Iran tests Israel red-lines (approaching weapons-grade uranium or orchestrating mass proxy assault), next move could be Israeli (or joint U.S.-Israeli) Iranian soil strikes. Conversely, Iran might decide now hunker-down time—absorbing Hezbollah blows and not retaliating, effectively saving powder for later. Quiet Tehran period (no major proxy flare-ups) likely means Iran riding out Trump term or awaiting better strategic moment. We anticipate clarity by mid-March: either Iran engages (directly or via proxies)—triggering open conflict—or takes tactical backseat while cursing loudly. This key "what's next" determines whether region explodes wider war or steps back from brink.

Israel's immediate next moves aim at regaining strategic initiative on its terms—preemptively hitting Hezbollah, holding Gaza at gunpoint pending condition satisfaction, and coordinating with U.S. cornering Iran. Decision-makers should closely watch above triggers and indicators. The timeline to either solidifying Israeli gains or sliding wider war remains very tight.

Strategic Forecast and Verdict

Israel stands at a strategic inflection point as February 2026 unfolds. After two continuous conflict and upheaval years, the nation's overall posture remains compressed but unbroken. Our assessment finds Israel poised to aggressively shape outcomes in its favor, leveraging current advantages in resolve, U.S. backing, and military readiness.

In practical terms, expect Israel's strategy delivering "compressed finish." Swiftly wrap up Lebanon unfinished business by incapacitating Hezbollah's rocket threat. Hold Gaza in a vice until Hamas either capitulates or faces removal. Timing driven by recognition that windows close—Trump's political timeline, global patience, and Israel's public unity all have expiry dates. Therefore, Israel will likely act "sooner rather than later" on northern front and press Iran issue to head, rather than allowing protracted limbo.

By early spring, we foresee either significantly changed landscape—Hamas effectively disarmed or marginalized, Hezbollah knocked back for generation, Iran deterred by force or deal—or failing that, multi-front war burning itself out by Israeli arms force.

Domestic Front:

The Haredi draft crisis particularly will be Netanyahu government crucible. Compromise will be cobbled avoiding immediate collapse, but lingering resentments remain and likely fuel large protests. A national healing and reckoning process looms—Israelis will demand accountability for early failures (Oct 7) and debate post-guns country direction.

Israel enters final act of this multi-front conflict cycle. The posture is brittle only in strain sense, but far from breaking. Indeed it is psychologically offensive. The coming 30–90 days will likely bring several open front resolutions. Outsiders should brace for bold Jerusalem moves appearing "shocking" but actually telegraphed months prior.

For decision-makers and serious observers, they must recalibrate views readiness. By April, the "facts on ground" could markedly differ (e.g., demilitarized Gaza overseen by interim international board, south Lebanon cleared of rockets). Strategic surprises likely only strike those not heeding Israel's clear signals. Barring unforeseen cataclysms, Israel will likely emerge from this crucible having profoundly altered region's terror landscape in its favor.

Author: Uri Zehavi, Intelligence Editor, Israel Brief Contact: Signal (@Uri.30) or ProtonMail